How to be 100% wrong and still come out ahead. Learn from Ken Basin's BRUTAL 'Who Wants to be a Millionaire run' - losing on the $1m question.
Ken Basin was a contestant on the 15th series of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire USA in 2004. During the span of the show and 15 questions, Ken went from a fun-loving, somewhat cocky Harvard lawyer—high-fiving and giving witty one-liners—to leaning back in his chair, contemplating life after missing the $1 million question and losing $475,000.
Despite what was a humbling mistake that many would laugh at, we can all learn something from Ken’s winning mindset—both in the game and in life.
On the million-dollar question, Ken was presented with the question:
“For ordering his favourite beverages on demand, LBJ had four buttons installed in the Oval Office labeled 'coffee', 'tea' 'Coke' and what?.”
With one lifeline remaining, he asked the audience, and 44% voted for Yoo-hoo. Not knowing the answer, he decided to go with the majority, confidently stating, “Give me a million dollars,” only to be crushed when the host revealed it was the wrong answer.
For those familiar with Game Theory, the science of decision-making, this move appears questionable. Most people in Ken’s position would have simply walked away with the $500,000 already in their pocket.
On a pure coin flip (50-50 odds), this is actually a reasonable gamble since the expected value is positive, risking $475,000 to gain an extra $500,000 - resulting in an average profit of $25k in the long run. However, with only 44% confidence from the audience, the expected value drops to -$46K—a clear loss. Additionally, audience responses are not always reliable, as they are influenced by factors such as contestant charisma, host cues, and the popularity of certain answers. Given that Yoo-hoo was a well-known drink, the 44% may have been misleadingly high.
Ken later explained his reasoning in an online post, shedding light on his decision-making process. He stated that he had eliminated two options and had already leaned toward Yoo-hoo even before polling the audience. His confidence stemmed from an obscure photograph of LBJ drinking a Yoo-hoo, reinforcing his belief that the audience was correct.
Ken also admitted to a strategic error in an earlier question, where he should have used the Ask the Audience lifeline on the Gremlins question instead of the Double Dip. Had he saved the extra lifeline for the million-dollar question, he would have won, with Fresca being his second pick. The Gremlins question was also a better option for using Ask the Audience as this was pop culture knowledge.
If we take Ken’s logic at face value—that he had at worst a 50% chance and at best a 75% chance—his gamble was actually reasonable. In fact, this same darring gamble played out on the previous question. Ken used both lifelines, with his friend giving the right answer and Bill Nye, for the Ask an Expert lifeline, giving the wrong one. Despite the split, he guessed correctly and moved forward. Here, Ken had an understanding with his friend that 50% meant more like 100%, and he was prepared to go for it.
Ken summed it up well in his post:
“Being willing to take risks is what got me to the MDQ at all, so I can't say it was lunacy just because it didn't work for me every single time.”
If you can stomach the losses, taking calculated risks will pay off in the long run. Ken even joked on the show: Risk-averse? Go to law school. Risk-tolerant? Go to business school, maybe I should have gone to business school.
In hindsight, analysing his logic, the punt to become a millionaire was respectable — it just materialise at this time for Ken unfortunately.
Success is often portrayed as the result of meticulous planning and strategic decision-making. However, history and research suggest that embracing uncertainty, learning from failure, and trusting one's intuition are key drivers of long-term achievement. Across various fields—be it entrepreneurship, investing, or innovation—those who take calculated risks and persist despite setbacks often come out ahead.
Research:
Carol Dweck’s growth mindset framework emphasizes the power of learning from mistakes. Individuals who view failures as stepping stones rather than roadblocks develop resilience and adaptability, refining their skills over time. Thomas Edison exemplified this principle with his famous remark: “I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.” His relentless trial-and-error approach led to groundbreaking inventions, proving that persistence and trust in one’s process are crucial.
Gerd Gigerenzer, in Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious, argues that in an uncertain world, relying on simple heuristics (mental shortcuts) can lead to better outcomes than exhaustive analysis. The Take-the-Best heuristic suggests that choosing the first option that matches certain key criteria often results in faster and more effective decisions. This highlights that sometimes, less information and quicker judgments lead to better choices.
The barbell strategy, popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Antifragile, illustrates how one can be wrong most of the time and still come out ahead. By placing the majority of resources in low-risk investments while allocating a small portion to high-risk, high-reward bets, success becomes less about being right every time and more about ensuring that one major win outweighs multiple small losses.
Ken, unlike many others, clearly had a winner’s mindset and was on a solid trajectory regardless of the game show outcome. He had already won on Jeopardy! and was a successful lawyer. While losing the one million dollar prize was disappointing, it wasn’t a barrier to his overall goals. Even his girlfriend at the time, Pam, gave him a standing ovation, unfazed by the loss.
Since then, Ken has written a book, served on company boards, and likely became a millionaire through other means. So while, some may see him as an arrogant rich kid humbled by his own greed, the reality is quite different—ultimately he’s a man of conviction, someone who commits to his strategy and embraces risk-taking as part of process for success.
Ken’s approach to Who Want to Be a Millionaire reflects key principles of winning in long-run:
Overall, Ken's story is a powerful reminder that calculated risks, conviction, and resilience are essential traits—not just in game shows but in life. Sometimes, when you set up a strategy and truly believe in it, going all-in is the right decision.
